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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It often functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

However this year's competition is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions declining and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. During an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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